CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-15T10:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-15T10:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30940/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the NNE in all coronagraphs. Observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 as a loop centered over an unnumbered region on the disk ~N35E35. This loop slowly begins rising around 2024-05-16T06:30Z before before explosively erupting and breaking around 2024-05-16T09:15Z. A broad area of dimming to the N and E of this area is observed in SDO AIA 193 with the eruption, a double ribbon flare is observed in SDO AIA 304 underneath this loop, and a post-eruptive arcade starts forming around 2024-05-16T10:09Z. No clear CME arrival signature found in real time solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-19T02:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 10.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.5 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 18.72 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-05-18T07:17Z
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